Karla and Jack

Is it possible to predict an invention’s market success before offering it for sale as a fully developed product?  Yes and no—mostly no.

Martin Lindstrom, in his recent book, Buyology, proves that what people say about a product, and how they really feel, don’t agree.  In fact, they often are polar opposites.  With case study upon case study he demonstrates this contradiction.  Further-more, corporate products apparently fare no better than the typical inventor’s.  About 80 percent of new products developed by corporations fail, and do so within the first three months of launching.

Lindstrom’s book is overly wordy, repetitious, and slow to get to its points.  But it does contain a few nuggets of product evaluation information that can help us inventors to achieve a better ratio of successes to failures.  The book is about neuromarketing, the marriage of marketing and science.  Neuromarketing uses brain scanning to assess our emotional responses to products, old and new.  And by comparing areas of our brains that light up in response to a product that already has proved to be a commercial success or failure, neuroscience is said to demonstrate an emotionally honest assessment.

Neuromarketing is not yet available to us independent inventors.  And it may never be an exact science.

Meanwhile, how do we predict whether or not our invention will sell?  Here are three ways, although not perfect, that will provide a helpful estimate of your invention’s prospects for success:

• Mall surveys
• Patent searches
• Trade shows

The mall survey is just that.  Prepare a form with about three questions, and ask passing strangers for their opinions.  Keep the survey short.  People resent being delayed more than a minute or so.  Don’t ask direct questions, such as “Would you buy this product if you saw it in a catalog or retail store?”  Such question will likely get you a “polar opposite” reply, as Lindstrom warns us.  But by asking, “Do you think people would buy this product if they saw it in a catalog, etc.? you are likely to get a less biased answer.

Don’t disclose that you are the inventor.  The answers will be more objective if you pose as a disinterested survey taker.

The same approach should be used for your other questions.  “How much do you think people would be willing to pay for this product?”

Try for at least 100 persons—preferably more.  You’ll need a convincing statistical base later, if you use your data in a business plan, or in licensing negotiations.

Some malls have a policy against surveying.  But I’ve never heard of anyone being escorted off the premises.  Keep a low profile.  Use a book or magazine to write on rather than a conspicuous clipboard.  One surveyor who worked for me did her work in the bathrooms foyer.  She worked all day long without any challenge.  Kieu Phan, invent-tor of the BraBall®, took more than 200 surveys, and was asked to stop once.  She came back on another day, and finished her work.

Most patent searches reveal prior art that is similar to our own.  Lack of prior art suggests that your invention is potentially too novel.  Sounds good.  But the problem is that you’ll have to create the market as well as the product, and that’s a challenge at which even the corporations often fail.

An excess of prior art may mean that the field is already overcrowded, and your invention is past its peak timing.  And even if your invention has at least one superior feature, it may be considered a “me too,” and you won’t be able to effectively penetrate traditional marketing channels.

A few patents on inventions similar to our own is often a good sign.  It suggests that the market is already established, and waiting for a superior product.

Trade shows offer authentic proof of our pro-duct’s value.  Buyers attend these shows looking for new products.  However, don’t display your product until you’re ready to roll out with production.  Copycats also prowl the trade shows

No marketability research method is perfect.  The ultimate proof that our inventions will sell is to offer them for sale.  As old Sophocles once said, “Knowledge must come through action; you can have no test which is not fanciful, save by trial.”